If you allow nukes, pretty soon the world becomes a nuclear wasteland. Everyone dies. India and Pakistan results in a nuclear war with about 100 nukes alone, enough to cause major famines. India and China is about 500 nukes, enough to bring humanity to its knees. Russia and China would be in the thousands, as Russia would attempt to obliterate China. Russia and America would be even more. Its a fair assumption that with enough time, every nuclear power would be launching every nuke it has. 20,000 nukes would be enough to wipe out life on Earth save for a few microbes.
No nukes, and it becomes much more interesting.
ASIA
North Korea and South Korea go to war instantly. North Korea has 10,000 artillery pieces on its border, and Seoul is in range. So soon enough, millions of people die. The South Korean army, while superior technologically, would never be able to hold off the inevitable storm from the North. While predicting casualties is like predicting the weather 300 years from now, my guess is 5 million casualties in a 2nd Korean War.
China invades North Korea, as the North Korean army is preoccupied with South Korea. China overruns North Korea with around 200,000 men, before dealing with a weakened North Korean army that is desperately trying to hold off China and finish off South Korea. China wins, and conquers the rest of the Korean peninsula. Casualties: 300,000
China invades Mongolia with 150 people. Casualties: 1 goat
Japan and China go to war with each other. Japan doesn’t attack the mainland, but instead resorts to naval warfare-Occupying a country with 1.3 billion people is damn near impossible. The two navies clash. Casualties: Cannot possibly be predicted
China invades Taiwan. A bloody war eventually results in Taiwan being conquered, but not without resistance. Taiwan is powerful enough to give China a very bloody nose. Casualties: 1 million. The Chinese military is significantly weakened.
India invades Pakistan/Pakistan invades India, and a huge war erupts. India slowly beats back Pakistan and forces them to surrender. India has a much larger and more technologically advanced army, air force, and India actually has a navy. Pakistan is also highly unstable and its entirely possible Pakistan descends into an anarchy, creating a massive pain for Indian soldiers. Regardless, its a large war between two massive and powerful militaries, and two countries with a population of 1.5 billion. Casualties: 8 million. Indian population centers are far from the border, while Karachi, a city with 27 million people, sits very close to the border. Most casualties are on the Pakistani side.
India invades Bangladesh. This isn’t too hard of a victory for India, but the huge population density in Bangladesh could result in lots of casualties. However, the Bangladeshi military is puny compared to that of India. Still, the dense population results in chaos, and possibly anarchy. Casualties: 3 million.
China and India DO NOT go to war (yet). Both countries know that A) The largest mountain range on Earth stands in between, B) Both countries would have a billion pissed off citizens, and C) There’s enough territory to go around.
China and India split southeast asia, and China takes the Philippines. It’d take too long to write up for every single country there, but Thailand and Vietnam both provide heavy resistance before falling. Vietnamese nationalists essentially recreate the Viet Cong after China conquers Vietnam, and China has a massive pain in the backside to deal with. Also, the tropical diseases. The Chinese military is spread pretty thin after this, and China commits more resources to the military. India is in a similar situation, however both countries now dominate east asia. Casualties: 10 million
India invades Afghanistan:
India easily takes Afghanistan, but like every country before it, has a huge resistance to deal with.
Russia takes Central Asia and the Caucus:
I’ll group Central Asia into one block as well, since all countries are going to get totally steamrolled by Russia. As ex USSR states, most of the populace would simply submit, but nationalistic groups would wage guerilla warfare in much of the Caucus.
Total Asian casualties: 27 million people, 1 goat.
Oceania:
A bit easier. This area is dominated by Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia.
Australia invades New Zealand. Casualties: A few sheep. Australia takes New Zealand with ease.
Australia and Indonesia go to war. Australia has to hop over a ton of islands to get to Jakarta, and Indonesia has a huge population. Casualties are in the hundreds of thousands, as Australian forces die due to the diseases.
Africa:
I’m largely going to skip over this, because frankly, I hardly understand African geopolitical relations.
Africa becomes a myriad of bloody ethnic conflicts, with organized countries like Egypt and South Africa steamrolling their neighbors. Famine and disease run rampant, and Africa turns into an absolute warzone. The area around the Congo is especially deadly. Casualties: In the long run, potentially hundreds of millions. Whatever little infrastructure would be destroyed.
Eventually, India, China, and the US invade Africa, splitting it amongst themselves.
North America:
The United States invades everything it sees. Naval expeditionary forces conquer Micronesia and whatever other islands are in the Pacific. Canada gets conquered in a few weeks, although the far north is ignored. Canadian oil will be very valuable.
The US also invades Mexico, and while they win, the tropical diseases in the South, the Mexican cartels, and an angry and nationalistic Mexican population result in huge pain for the US, and a massive occupation force is required to hold order in Mexico. Casualties: 1 million
The US continues into Central America, and takes it with ease. However, disease is again the enemy here. US forces are now spread pretty thin, and the US holds back from an invasion of South America.
South America:
Brazil tries to conquer all of South America, and they manage to succeed with heavy losses. Wars also occur between Colombia and Venezuela, Bolivia and Chile, and other countries, before they all fall to Brazil. Casualties: 15 million.
Middle East:
Iran, Turkey, Israel, and Saudi Arabia fight to the death. Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves make it a tempting target, and the 3 powers attack it and each other. A bloody war erupts, but eventually Saudi Arabia is conquered. Israel, Iran, and Turkey split the region between each other and form a very uneasy peace. Sunnis globally are pissed as Mecca got conquered by Jews and Shias.
EUROPE:
Turkey invades the Balkans, which are fractured among ethnic lines as Serbia and Croatia try to obliterate each other. Turkish troops are able to seize power throughout the region. Casualties are around 1.5 million
Germany and France go to war with each other. The two countries have a very long history between each other, and the border between the two would soon become a war zone. In addition, German and French troops would seize Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Belgium, and soon an all out war breaks out. The two countries are very evenly matched, and they soon cripple each other with regular bombings and the increased demand for resources. Spain, meanwhile, takes most of France, while an advancing Russian army takes Germany. Casualties: 15 million.
The UK invades Ireland and the Nordic Countries, and Iceland. The UK is able to take over these countries swiftly, and the populations of all (except Ireland) probably wouldn’t mind. Ireland, however, wages a viet-congesque guerilla campaign that takes away most of its resources.
Russia invades Eastern Europe and conquers it swiftly. The Baltics and Poland are too weak to resist the might of the Russian army, while Belarus would submit. Ukraine, plagued by instability and a civil war, would be crushed. Casualties are low, around 200,000. Russia then uses this to invade Germany.
Italy: In an attempt to gain power in the Balkans, Italy and Turkey go to war. Turkey is more powerful than Italy, but is spread thin. Italy takes back a good chunk of the Balkans before Turkey and Italy sign an armistice.
The total casualties of this entire war would potentially reach up to a billion, once famine, disease, and other factors are taken into consideration. 8 powers are left: Turkey, Iran, UK, Russia, India, China, Brazil, and the USA. Other countries exist, but aren’t really relevant and are just protected by geography and/or armistices. The world looks something like this. The World is crippled forever, and the 22nd century is spent rebuilding. Eventually, we recover.
India: Black
China: Cyan (China, SE asia Korea, Central Africa)
USA: Red (The Dark Red in West Africa is also USA)
Turkey: Light red
Iran: Yellow-Orange
Spain: Orange
The UK: Turqoise
Brazil: Green
Japan: Dark Green
Australia: Dark Red
Russia: Dark Purple
Italy: Light Green
Israel: Blue (Saudi Arabia is supposed to be split but Idk how to do that)
If armistices aren’t around:
The Eastern hemisphere tears itself apart. India and China fight the largest war in human history and essentially obliterate each other. Japan, Russia, and Australia get caught in the mess. Africa deteriorates into the “disputed area” from 1984. Europe turns into a brawl between Russia, Spain, the UK, Italy, Turkey, and Israel. Nationalism spreads and soon enough tribal conflicts arise everywhere.
Meanwhile, the US Navy destroys everything it sees, crippling everything it faces. The US also conquers South America after a brutal war. In the end, the Eastern hemisphere is an anarchic war zone with bandits ruling. The US and Canada are the only “good” places. But soon enough, global famine occurs. Without the East, and the colossal damage in the west from US conquest, we can definitively say that…
Everyone Dies™
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